Ask Colin

Late October 2015: How do we decide a correction in a bull is not a bear market before its too late?

The detailed question was:

I understand that the market conditions don't suggest we are in a bear market based on phase analysis, but I also feel we could be wrong at any time as history may not repeat itself, hence we keep an eye out on the charts, risk management etc outlined in your book. So I am a bit confused. Taking the XAO over the last 3 years, if we follow the definition of a bear, ie lower lows and lower highs, it seems the end of the chart may fulfill this criteria? How do you deal with this situation? How do we decide a correction in a bull is not a bear market before its too late?

I have been discussing this issue on the website over several months.

 

Please see the article Corrections in Bull Markets on the Free Resources menu, Educational Articles page. See also the presentation to ATAA Canberra last week the text of which is on the Learning Centre menu, Presentations page. 

In general, I am seeing a correction in a bull market. It could turn into a bear market - however a bear market is defined, there is no absolute definition, it is inherently subjective. You are right that anything can happen, but it has not happened yet. In the article and again in the presentation I discuss how I have found is the best way to deal with that

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