Ask Colin

Do you agree that, in hindsight, we can see a company will grow, but it is not evident in real time?

If you mean is it easy to see, the answer is: not always. However, the more skilled you are at analysis - both fundamental and technical, the better you are able to judge situations. Of course sometimes you will be wrong, but it is possible to get it right a lot of the time if you focus on the clearest cases and don't berate yourself for missing some of them or getting some wrong.

The companies you mention - CSL, Cochlear, Lend Lease, Brambles - all had multi-year growth phases. There was plenty of time to be involved with them for several of those years. Lend Lease grew profits every year for twenty years, so it was not difficult at all to capture at least fifteen of those years.

Maybe you are expecting the impossible - to predict the markets or to pick exact tops and bottoms of trends. In that sense, neither fundamental nor technical analysis will ever have much of a track record.

You complain that you could only see these trends in the fundamentals at the time it all went wrong. I have already mentioned Lend Lease's record. Now let

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