Ask Colin

In September 2001you answered a question on Ask Colin saying what Dow Theory phase we were in then. What phase are we in now (August 2002)?

Your question poses me a problem. As you will have read on the Ask Colin home page, I asked not to be asked to answer questions about current markets. The reason for that is that I cannot legally answer questions that may be seen to be giving investment advice. The Q&A you refer to was before the new legislation came into force and was also not given until about six months after it was asked.

Much as I would like to answer your question, I am not permitted to by law. I do not seek to work as an adviser, but rather to teach people to do their own analysis. Even if I had a licence as an investment adviser, I would first have to acquaint myself with your affairs in detail, before I could meet the "know your client rule" proscribed in the legislation. You have told me nothing about your affairs.

I have written extensively about Dow Phase analysis, it has a major section in my videotape and there are Q&As about it. Also, I write regularly about the markets in Shares magazine and Shares Weekly online newsletter where I discuss the markets. This I am able to do under the law as it stands as a journalist in public media. I hope that in time the ASIC will clarify whether my web site will qualify as public media, but they are awaiting regulations from Treasury and then have to consult with the industry and release policy statements. Until then it is very unsatisfactory and I have said so to the ASIC at a very high level. However, there is nothing that can be done.

If you study my work you should be able to work it out without much trouble. It is pretty clear to me whare we are if you read the signs I have described. However, more importantly, remember that you only have to get within one phase of where we are to devise an appropriate strategy.

Sorry I cannot answer your question at this time.