Ask Colin

Can you please give me your opinion of where the market will be going this year (2001)?

Can you please give me your opinion of where the market will be doing in the first three months and the second three months of this year (2001)?

I do not believe that we can forecast the market, so the answer is that I have no idea. Moreover, I do not want to have a view, because it is psychologically dangerous. Once we make a prediction, we lose our objectivity and start defending it and rationalising information to the contrary.

On the futility of prediction, read William Sherden The Fortune Sellers (Wiley).

My approach is to identify the condition of the market and in particular the degree of risk. Then I manage that risk and react to what the market wants to do. My analysis of the condition of the market now (early March 2001) is that it is in high-risk territory. For mare detail, read my article in April Shares when it comes out.

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