Ask Colin

DOW THEORY

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  1. Do you have some kind of corrective measure if your analysis of the current phase of the market turns out to be wrong or premature?
  2. Is the Dow Transports index still relevant?
  3. With respect to “Bull Market Phase Three”, what would be your definition of a significant “increase in volatility” which would cause you to be concerned?
  4. Are we in the early or late stage of phase two of the bull market (December 2014)?
  5. Which Dow phase are we currently in (early 2001) and when are we likely to see an entry point?
  6. Is the Dow Theory idea of confirmation by the Transport index still valid?
  7. With the demise of the ASX Industrials and Transport indexes, what indexes should now be used for Dow Theory?
  8. Why can't I see Accumulation, Mark-up, Distribution and Mark-down stages on the chart of the All Ordinaries Index?
  9. I read in Shares magazine this month (April 2001) your explanation that the All Ordinaries Index is in a trading range and, therefore, still technically in an uptrend. My recollection from what you taught me in your courses where Dow Theory was explained seems to lead me to a different view. It seems to me that the dominant peaks and troughs would indicate a downtrend, albeit still gentle.
  10. Further to my earlier email about XAO being in a bear market, I offer the attached chart of the Industrial Index with the Transport Index which suggests to me that classic Dow Theory would put us squarely in a bear market (mid March 2001). I would appreciate your comments.
  11. Your January 2001 Shares magazine article on phases of a bear market did not identify the current phase. Could you clarify which phase we are now in?
  12. What phase of the bear market or business cycle are we in? (Early March 2001)
  13. I have been making a transition from buying mutual funds on a long term basis to buying stocks on a short term basis and selling short a little bit. I assume we are now (December 2000) in the phase 2 of a bear market. Would you advise me to sell my mutual funds now and do you have any other recommendations to help me with my transition?