Ask Colin

MARKET CYCLE

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  1. On 15.01.00 you wrote an article titled Australian Share Market 15 Jan 2000 Review & Suggested Strategy where you suggested an impending bear market. Where can I read your current view of the markets?
  2. Why is it that the leaders in a bull market rarely boom in the next bull market?
  3. It is reported (end June start of July 2003) that Wall Street Experts have a bullish consensus, which is bearish, but PE ratios are high. How can that be?
  4. How are interest rate cycles related to equity cycles?
  5. Is it possible we will see a Japanese style bear market in the US?
  6. "Everyone" says the property boom is different this time. I know it is wrong, but how do I answer these people?
  7. In September 2001you answered a question on Ask Colin saying what Dow Theory phase we were in then. What phase are we in now (August 2002)?
  8. The Dow consolidated for about 20 years below 1000. It then rose for about 20 years in a bull market. Everyone is awaiting a bear market ending to jump in and buy. But isn't it more likely we will have to wait 10 to 15 years for the next bull market?
  9. In history, last time Dow Jones average spent 16 years (1965 - 1982) going side way after 23 years of bull market (1942 - 1965). Now, the Dow has just finished a 19 year long bull market (1982 - 2001). If we knew it will spend more than 10 years going side way or going down, would you suggest we should stay away from the market, or have very low exposure to it? Because compounding is essential for accumulating wealth in long term, I just thought 10 year will be a long time in ones life.
  10. I have just read your latest column which I found fascinating and enlightening you state bear markets 73/74,80/82,87/88 fell 40-50 percent and 2001 around 17 percent and suggest there may be some more falls however, I was wondering whether, if these statistics were based on US dollars, how would they appear? Would they be anywhere near 40-50 percent?
  11. When I apply Dow Theory I think of the US. Looking at the chart of XAO one could hardly say we are in a similar bear state (at the start of September 2001). How does this then affect Dow Theory? Do you apply for each index?
  12. What Dow Theory phase are you estimating we're in now (early September 001)..distress selling or still in decreasing earnings?
  13. I have been watching the video that you made when you were in the U.S. You expressed at that time (June 2000) that the Stock Market was in Phase 1 of a bear market. Do you think we are now (September 2001) already in phase 2? Based on your notes, some of the conditions are currently being fulfilled e.g. decreasing earnings.
  14. I'm currently reading through the Gann section of E171 and I also went to the trading expo where I attended a seminar on cycles. I found this to be very interesting. It was presented by Trading Edge. He uses methods described by this book Merriman on Market Cycles - the Basic. Basically it was suggested that is was possible to predict the share price down to as little as 6 days with a 70% probability. The time frame has an error of one-sixth the cycle. Since you prepared the content for cycles I was curious if you think this is possible?
  15. I think the share market is currently (end July 2001) in phase 2 of a Bear market, that is, Bear market phase 2, Do you agree? Do you provide a service for investors to receive say regular update of your thoughts on the market in general or in detail format?
  16. Have you written anything on how to use Technical Analysis to detect the bottom of the market?
  17. I have just read your latest Trend Trader column (April 2001 pages 16 & 17) and I was concerned about the 2 charts that you produced with regard to the Dow Jones/All Ords compared to the Advance Decline line. Are you suggesting that the bigger companies ie blue chips are still in danger of following the broader market down? What did the market comparison between the above do pre 1995?? Did these two markets always follow the broader market eg 1987?
  18. Your January 2001 Shares magazine article on phases of a bear market did not identify the current phase. Could you clarify which phase we are now in?
  19. Can Greenspan's lowering of interest rates make a difference to either the bear market or market cycles? (Early March 2001).
  20. What phase of the bear market or business cycle are we in? (Early March 2001)
  21. Can you please give me your opinion of where the market will be going this year (2001)?